Sizing Up the Future of IT
25 Sep 2006
by Jeff WackerWhat Are the “Next” Next Big Things in Information Technology?
Jeff Wacker
As the saying goes, history repeats itself but can the same be said for the future of IT? For the past 50 years, information technology has gone through repeated cycles of innovation and digestion. So what are the current beliefs about information technology's future?
- Faster Exponential IT – Exponentially accelerating advances in information technology capabilities and decreases in costs will drive rapid change causing leading companies to employ new processes that will exploit these capabilities for competitive advantage.
- Flattening World – The 'flat world' will amplify the effects of the leveled playfield creating new markets and competitors as well as severely distorted economics driving immediate worker dislocation and “leap-frog” strategies.
- Ubiquitous Edge – The “edge” (first contact of IT with application) will continue to expand and disappear into the environment creating an exponential growth of new content and new context information that will be harnessed by leading enterprises to create competitive advantage and superior execution.
- Predictability – The speed of change and reduced time for response will drive companies from a reactive “sense and respond” to a proactive “cause and effect” positioning fueled by the increased use of predictive technologies, which will improve the ease and cost for companies to adapt to continuous change.
- From Push to Pull – Consumers, customers and constituents will demand personalized interactions that tailor both “bits and atoms” to their individual wants and needs creating a personal digital surrogate for the consumers digital edge. The result: increased enterprise focus on demand-side management as a primary market differentiator.
- A Different Type of Change – Because of these forces, the very nature of change has changed. It is no longer constant followed by periodic change, but rather constant change punctuated by periodic extreme change. The tools, skills and processes by which constant change is managed are significantly different from the past.
- Simplification – The proliferation of change and new capabilities will create a more complex world that will exceed the capacity for change of companies and consumers resulting in a focus on simplification by transferring complexity from humans to IT systems.
- Automation – The speed of business will transcend the ability of humans to manage and operate the enterprise directly driving to a new level of automation that will create “business by wire” enterprises.
- Variablized Resourcing – Rapid change and new business models will require flexibility and variability in the procurement and management of all resources requiring most fixed costs to be variablized to the extent practical.
- Security & Privacy – Security will be enabled by logic-based, multi-tiered security that is context respectful in enabling access while deterring malware.
About the Author:
Jeff Wacker is an EDS Fellows and a futurist. He recently made an appearance on the History Channel's “Modern Marvels” and is an expert on RFID.