Driving Forces propelling “the next big thing” in IT #3 – Accelerating Complexity
by
Jeff Wacker
The increasing business capability being demanded by companies is often accompanied by increasing complexity. As we view product life cycles, we inevitably see them move from introduction (simple to use but low capability) to mainline (more complex but more capable) to maturity (complex but highly capable). The Microsoft product I’m using to author this entry is an example. Early versions of Word were simple “key to file to paper” tools. Later versions allowed for advanced editing and formatting that created unprecedented variety and interest. I’m probably using about 10% of the current version of Word. Indeed most people, when looking over the shoulders of someone using the same version they are currently using, often are heard to utter “how did you do that?” in response to seeing yet another function they did not even realize existed.
Word processing software vendors should be complimented that novice users and experts alike can use the same tool to great utility. However, what is lacking is the easy interface that allows the novice user to tap all of the capabilities without having to become an expert themselves. It is this “desire for capability AND simplicity” that is driving our interface from the current man-machine (where humans must sort out the complexities embedded in the computer) to that of machine-man (where we will expect the computer to use some of those exponentially increasing cycles to sort out the complexities embedded in humans).
Further, companies are quickly reaching the saturation point of people and business processes. A psychology term, Hrair, speaks to the maximum complexity we can stand before we hit the “NO MORE” point. (More on this term later.) Companies are starting to seek new solutions, not extensions of existing solutions, to the conundrum represented by “40 year hairball” of infrastructure, applications and processes. The last thing they want is to make it into a 50 year model. Therefore they are seeking to either reduce complexity without impacting capability (server consolidation, applications rationalization, etc.) or they are seeking to mask complexity through automation and machine-man interfaces to achieve simplification without apparent complexity (still there, but software agents simplify the interaction).
Because both humans and organizations have a limitation on the amount of complexity they can manage, the drive for simplification in an increasingly complex world will be a significant driver of change toward “the next big thing” in information technology.
