A Model For Extrapolating The Next Big Thing (1st in a series)
by
Charlie Bess
This is the first of two entries based upon a discussion Kas Kasravi had with the other fellows. He described to us a thought that came to him in the middle of the night, like a lighting bolt out of the blue.
Fads have a close relationship to the mania that surrounds The Next Big Thing. Fads in the business community come in waves. For example:
- 1970 - Efficiency
- 1980 - Productivity
- 1990 - Quality
- 2000 - Innovation
They are made up of a core that contains the good stuff, has a few key thought leaders and addresses the real issue. It is surrounded by parasitic fluff. The fluff can be recognized by having a large number of consultants that reiterate the content created by the subject matter experts. These consultants tout turnkey solutions that claim to meet all your needs in the area. I am sure we can all think of some examples of this during the time frames listed above. Fluff can also be recognized by a sudden level of government involvement (e.g., national productivity or quality committees).
Another interesting fact about these particular fads is that the manufacturing industry embraced them earlier than other industries, many times up to a decade before they caught on in the rest of the market. For example: There was a maniacal focus on Deming and Crosby in the 80s and the rest of the economy did not get on board until the early 90s. Similar examples can be found around innovation, to the point where today whole libraries can be filled with innovation related materials.
Can manufacturing be the indicator of where the rest of business is headed? What are the implications when manufacturing moves offshore? Could service based knowledge management be an adequate replacement going forward?
