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EDS' Next Big Thing Blog: Read and Respond to What the EDS Fellows Say About Technology

Read and respond to what the EDS Fellows have to say about the future of technology on EDS' Next Big Thing Blog on eds.com.

A Model for Extrapolating the Next Big Thing (2nd in a series)

by Charlie Bess

In the previous post (based on a discussion with Kas) the following fads were used as examples:

1970 - Efficiency
1980 - Productivity
1990 - Quality
2000 - Innovation

An interesting pattern is that each following wave addresses a side effect of the previous wave.

A total dedication to efficiency lowers productivity. Trying to get the most out of the workforce lowers quality. When you drive all the variation out of the system to raise quality, innovation suffers.

Therefore, it should be possible to predict the next fad early, if you think about the negative implications of the current wave.

Questions to ask today could be…

What problem does Innovation create?
What is the solution being used in manufacturing?
What are the IT and business implication of that solution?

Could it be that this is really a cycle, since efficiency can suffer when there is too much innovation? Or, is it a woven fabric describing an interrelationship between these various dimensions?

Published Monday, August 22, 2005 2:30 PM

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Comments

Posted by John Fowler Friday, August 26, 2005 10:13 PM

That's funny, the way each fad solves the perceived problems of the previous fad, yet introduces new problems of its own. Instead of being cyclical, you could actually go in reverse as well. Someone being too innovative might be caught up in so much new stuff that they lose sight of quality, and put out something "Neat, but doesn't work." Too much emphasis on quality lowers productivity: "You need to have a third review of the 15-stroke-Q requisition form forms." Trying to force productivity out of your workforce lowers efficiency, and concentrating on efficiency leads you to exclude innovation.

Instead of looking at this as a cycle, try envisioning these things as four forces trying to tug you in different directions at once. The best place to be is not to fully embrace any of them, but to compromise between them all.

Or, if you want to make a lot of money as an executive consultant, find out which of these trends a company favors, and tell the board they're idiots for not favoring the other directions. Then come back a few years later and repeat with the original directions.

Posted by Steve Walker Tuesday, August 30, 2005 9:34 PM

This is an interesting line of thought. I have seen the effects that this single minded focus has on an organization but it is very difficult to sustain improvement in MORE than one area at a time. Hence the cycle. If an organization tries to maintain an effort on all 4 fronts at the same time, the message and direction will be conflicting. How could this be reconciled ?

Posted by Neil Harwani Friday, February 09, 2007 9:35 AM

Data & content isolation, abstraction, security and access and next challenges.

Posted by Neil Harwani Friday, February 09, 2007 9:39 AM

Data & content management are next challenges. Solution to it lies in Variable U lock integrated content & Operating System. No one ever sees everything.
Variable U lock integrated content management & operating system means having an integrated OS + content manager which has variable locks according to classification of data with decision support system. No one can see whole data ever. System admin only sees policies, developers only see code, users only see data and top management only sees Decision support systems.