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The intersection of sixty-year old Cobol baby boomers and a forty-year old computer architecture

by Tom Hill

Next year some baby boomer Cobol programmers will celebrate their sixtieth birthday and the IBM 360 mainframe architecture will have endured for just over two thirds of those sixty years. In other words, programmers around the world have been creating a legacy of mission critical business applications, under the same standard language and architecture for over forty years. Business applications represent the implementation of an enterprise’s business models. In many cases the application programs, running on a forty-year-old architecture, represent the only written documentation of the business rules that enforce an enterprise’s most critical business functions.

I jest with many of my IT peers, when they suggest that we develop business rules for our customers, and maybe we need to create a standard language for this purpose. Hmmm… a common business oriented language makes perfect sense. Let’s do it and call it COBOL.

Every couple of years, the IT press laments about what will happen when we run out of aging Cobol programmers. “…It’s another Y2K crisis, all Cobol systems will stop running as our programmers retire...” This will not happen. We will always be able to train people to code in any programming language. If the economics are right they will be educated and replace an aging workforce.

Business leaders, responsible for the growth of their corporations, should be concerned about two open questions:

  1. Will the sole provider of the 40 year old architecture forego its powerful position and provide multiple open-architecture upgrade paths for continued operation and growth? Architecture flexibility is required to reduce operational risk.
  2. As experienced Cobol business analysts leave the workforce, who will maintain that essential link between your critical business processes and your critical business applications? The essential link is necessary to maintain and grow applications in a competitive business marketplace.

Multiple answers have been proposed to reduce the danger that these two questions bring forward. I only see a few practical solutions and recommendations to minimize this intersection of risks:

  1. Architecture-to-architecture transformation tools are becoming Cobol-ready. Find a large corporate mission-critical application, commit to transforming it, move it to a new open architecture, and operate it in a production environment. Understand the difficulty, the costs, and rewards of independence. Make a knowledgeable plan to mitigate the risk.
  2. Many of the transformation tools claim to extract business rules from Cobol applications. Use existing tools or create tools to mine critical application business rules and use your talented experienced Cobol business analysts to connect the rules to documented business processes. UML use-case diagrams provide one method of documenting the rules-to-processes connections.

I have to put some more thought into it – but we might just be able to extract the business rules and leave the rules in a Common Business Oriented Language as we attempt to connect them to our business processes. I think this would make a fitting legacy to Grace Murray Hopper. Any other suggestions?

Published Tuesday, November 29, 2005 8:39 PM

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Comments

# Posted by Scott Hatanaka Friday, January 06, 2006 10:39 PM

Actually IBM has been pushing steadily away from the COBOL legacy material over the last few years. Linux virtual images using IFL engines are proving cost effective, and their use is exploding and can use hipersocket connectivity, to connect to some of the older legacy systems at memory speed and has been around for 6 years.... your query on 40 year old architecture has already been answered a long time ago. zaap engines(a 2004 implementation) on the mainframe make JAVA programming cost effective on the mainframe z images, too. Websphere, which is predominately JAVA, can access CICS and DB2 data on the mainframe with ease.
CICS TS 3.1 can now be an internet server and client, and can use/translate XML constructs. The smart companies should have recognized these trends a long time ago, and have cross trained their COBOL programmers. At this point, developing NEW(aka.. not maintain) COBOL programs should be taboo, even for the 60 year olds. Unfortunately, some business executives live a pipe dream on how easy/hard a migration can be and try and put it off(aka.. being cheap on training, re-engineering).... A multi-user, multi-tasking subsystem, such as CICS and IMS, which is the bulk of mainframe workloads, is extremely difficult to re-architect to another platform and the more pragmatic idea, from a risk/cost factor, may be to modernize it in place on the mainframe instead and push towards the cheaper engines of zaap/IFL(this lowers overall system software cost, too, unlike the arguement with adding UNIX workloads to the mainframes, in the past). Even smaller mainframe images can run on x-series(Itanium 2) equipment(and there are now 64 engine Itanium 2 machines available, which can support z/os). Re-engineering may not be worth the cost/effort/risk, especially on a large scale project. This is why Gartner recommends against 500+ MIP mainframe migration projects and why CMG does not think it is that cost effective anymore. Even the 500 MIP threshold may not be safe with the FLEX/PS systems now available and zaap engines coming out.

The point being, is that the only ones who will be 'hurt' by these issues are the executive 'dinosaurs' who fail to evolve the business. It no longer has anything to do with what hardware vendor you have or even the OS you are running stuff under.
More information on request.

# Posted by Al Bergstein Tuesday, November 07, 2006 5:13 PM

Cobol isn't the problem, though it's becoming more of a problem as time goes by. (the bulk of the work is now being done in India, so it can be done), but having talked to many IT managers on this subject, the real issues facing migration is cost/complexity and risk. The mainframe environment is by far the most costliest environment for a company to support (in terms of hardware costs, etc.) and the execs know this. They see no new businesses that are starting up on *real* mainframes (obviously some are using Linux based mainframes, which I don't consider the same as a zOS mainframe). They are very scared that they will fail to migrate successfully. Will the Cobol based z/OS systems continue? sure. inertia is very hard to overcome. Requires a lot of energy.

In addition, sales organizations like yours are very adverse to actually selling the project. I find very few consulting firms coming from support of mainframes willing to pay their sales people properly to really do such a monumental project. There are many consultancies *saying* they want to / can do it. But when push comes to shove, I don't see enough success happening to make me believe it's a real goal and not just another sales technique to achieve something else.

I'm willing to be wrong on this though. But I've been dealing with it for the last three years.

# Posted by Robert Richardson Saturday, October 20, 2007 8:59 PM

Well, I'm a sixty year old programmer and started coding COBOL in the early 1970's on an IBM 360/30 mainframe.  The real power of the Mainframe is to move data at breath taking speed on behalf of the Enterprise (i.e. make money).  The easiest and most straight forward way to deliver this to the largest number of coders possible is to use COBOL.  

By the way, my current project in San Francisco is yet another IT exec promising the EVPs that what's best for the Enterprise is to get off of that big expensive Mainframe and get on to the UNIX platform of choice.  And my job?  Convert their data using C++ reading all the stored data's copy books generating COBOL code to run on the Mainframe surrounded by Assembler, Ispf Dialogue Manager and REXX.  I be there until they figure out that UNIX will choke on their data streams and the new IT Exec declares victory while moving on to 'spend my time with his family'.  COBOL will certainly outlive both me and the exec.

# Posted by Stan Lord Thursday, March 13, 2008 5:50 AM

EDS has boasted of their off shore strategy calling it Best Shore.  A pun at best.  While the trend was to use Indian resources, the economic forces have driven India resources not so competitive.  Today, China is the place.

Still, regardless of India or China.  Anyone from these countries having begun work over the past 10 to 15 years has only learned newer technologies.  Yes, EDS does not have a bench of skilled folks in China with mainframe skills.

Going on the street to hire someone recently out of school or within the past 10 to 15 years have most likely learned the new stuff.  HTML, C++, Windows, UNIX etc.

Sure you say you can teach them TSO, CICS, JCL, CLIST, etc.  But how many of them personally will want to learn.  Or even if they get trained by EDS in the older skills.  Chances are they plan is to hope to another job and further their IT skills.  These markets are like the USA IT environment was back in the 80's.

I myself have worked on the mainframe for the past 24 years.  TSO, JCL, CICS, VSAM, PL/1 and COBOL, CLIST/REXX, CA-7, File-Aid etc.

At 49 (50 in June) I see a wide open opportunity. Imagine.  I and my peers, those approaching 50 are on the tail end of the classic Baby Boomers.  Yes there will be many folks in their late 50's, 60ish leaving.  Of course with EDS's push to get rid of these folks is even creating a larger VOID.

I personally have no desire to retire in my late 50's.  I still have house payments until I am 67.

I think that being at the very tail end of the baby boomers will allow me and my age related peers to fill the void and keep working.

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