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EDS' Next Big Thing Blog: Read and Respond to What the EDS Fellows Say About Technology

Read and respond to what the EDS Fellows have to say about the future of technology on EDS' Next Big Thing Blog on eds.com.

August 2006 - Posts

The Swiss, They Don't Just Do Watches, Chocolate and Money

I’ve always considered the Swiss to be world leaders in the design and manufacture of tiny mechanical things. With their tendency to gravitate toward miniscule mechanics, and more recently, miniscule electro mechanical things, it is no surprise to me that they would demonstrate innovative solutions to modern technological problems. To that end, recent innovation from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich focuses on a totally new color digital display technology.

I think that the most important aspect of this innovation is the reduction of display elements per pixel. With the CRT and LCD systems, to which we have grown accustomed, color is produced by clustering a red, green and blue element for each pixel. Other techniques, like those used with DLP systems, time slice the three colors; tricking the eye into seeing them as one blended color (by using a color wheel and some slick synchronization).

It's too early to make any assumptions about "if" or "how fast" this technology will make it to the market. It will surely take many years. Nonetheless, a color display that uses a single element for each digital pixel, and does it for all colors without time slicing, is a stunning leap and an important glimpse into the future.

Tracking The Storms

As a resident of New Orleans, I am particularly sensitive to news about tropical storms, particularly when a storm is close to home. Since Katrina, my definition of close to home means within about 1500 miles.

Last week, when Tropical Storm Ernesto first appeared in the Caribbean (close to home by my new definition), I began scrambling to find data on the topic. Recent experiences have taught me that “being in the know” is critical for thorough storm preparation. Information from commercial news and weather resources, though regularly updated, is not as thorough or as timely as the information available from the “National Hurricane Center.” It’s on the Internet, up-to-date and “straight from the horse’s mouth.”

Business technology replaces IT

I was reading a Forrester report titled: My View: IT to BT and found the whole premise of the article a description of what might be wrong with information technology. IT should always have been viewed as business technology. It is a means to an end and should never be an end in itself.

In the article, it states that the job of IT has changed. I find that fascinating. If we were not doing our work for a business purpose -- STOP (early and often).

Like all specialties, IT has had its unique nomenclature and skill-sets, but its reason for existence should have always been to enable the business in meeting its objectives.

Times have changed and everything is faster, but to say that systems "were not used to actively operate the business" is a bit revisionist. We lived in a batch oriented world and that was the "real-time" of its day. Now we just expect our batches to be 1.

For a long time, the Fellows have been talking about the movement away from the Chief Information Officer to the Chief Integration Officer. The integration of process and information flow between and across the enterprise to enable greater flexibility is where all organizations need to be headed.

The one thing stated in the paper that is definitely a fact for the future: "business is technology and technology is business."

As we integrate work-flow and SOA, this will be more true than ever and the current arsenal of 3rd generation languages, hand-crafted solutions and isolated IT plans will definitely come up short.

Posted Monday, August 28, 2006 1:37 PM by Charlie Bess | 2 Comments

Dropped my son off at college this week

During the parent orientation (an activity designed to get the students away from their parents IMHO), a presentation of the nine things parents of college kids should do:

  1. Don't ask if they're homesick (guilt trip - either way they answer)
  2. Write even if they don't write back (no one wants a dusty mailbox)
  3. Ask questions but not too many (don't ask any questions you don't want the answer to)
  4. Expect change (after all that's why they're going to college)
  5. Don't worry too much about those late night phone calls or email (everyone needs a shoulder to cry on -- as long as it doesn't turn into a habit. Just because they told you does not mean they want you to fix it.)
  6. Visit but not often (if they wanted you there they would have stayed at home)
  7. Do not say that these are the best years of their life (it always looks better from the outside)
  8. Trust your student (it's too late now)
  9. Encourage volunteerism (being involved is the best way to develop a support network)

I summarized the subtle points in the parenthetical statements.

It did make me wonder about the similarities between sending a son or daughter to college and launching a project to turn an idea into reality.

Posted Friday, August 25, 2006 5:28 PM by Charlie Bess | 0 Comments

Ajax and Atlas

The terms Ajax and Atlas have been with us for a long time; first as titans in Greek Mythology, then all manner of things, from rockets to racehorses to household cleaners. We just love to re-use these two words.

Lately, we are hearing more and more about Ajax (Asynchronous JavaScript + XML) and Atlas in Web programming. Indeed, both of these terms have recently shown up in this blog. I think it may be worthwhile to talk a little about what Ajax and Atlas are about.

First of all, Ajax is a suite of technologies that enable the creation of rich, responsive and smoothly interactive Web pages that have a high degree of elegance and cross browser compatibility. In other words; Web pages that perform more like standalone GUI applications, at least from the user's perspective. Many of the technologies in the Ajax framework have been around for a while performing interactive Web magic. The kind of magic clearly demonstrated by Ajax pioneer Google and clearly visible in the Google Maps user interface.

So where does Atlas come in? Once we understand that Ajax is a framework for building interactive cross browser Web applications, we can talk about Atlas, which is a specific implementation of Ajax for .Net 2.0. The primary distinction is that Atlas has an enhanced foundation set because it also includes a set of client side controls that simplify the process of implementation. The catch for now is that Atlas is currently only available as a Beta.

$100 Laptop

One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) is a non-profit association dedicated to research to develop a $100 laptop. Depending upon who you speak to it is “either soon-to-be-legendary vapourware or a shortcut to modern education for tens of millions of poor kids around the world” ($100 Laptop, Wired, August 2006).

Thomas L. Friedman, in “The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century,” talks about the world being flat, but that assumes there is access to trained resources anywhere. Bruce Sterling (Wired, August 2006) put it more concisely, “If there are two technologies that have shaped the life I lead today, they’re jets and nets.”

The $100 Laptop model potentially allows companies to tap into the developing world’s Long Tail both in the supply sense of allowing access to more trained staff, and the demand sense by providing access to new markets.

Applying the long tail concept to access talented and IT literate staff, created by the OLPC in developing countries, and if as some claim “regular full-time employment” is being replaced with temporary labor (See "The future of the global workplace: An interview with the CEO of Manpower,") then the ability to leverage temporary globalized labor will become an increasingly strategic concern for companies. There is already some evidence emerging that the currently accessible world is becoming “talent constrained,” even in the new markets of India and China. As a result, creating a long tail labor market in the developing world that could be exploited to provide a low-cost, granular and hence non-unionized labor pool could help companies continue to exploit the labor arbitrage approach to keeping costs down.

An alternate view is that the emergence of stateless IT literate communities poses a threat to the existing corporate entities who could all be Amazon-ed out of existence by a newly emerging competitor. How will existing companies be able to motivate and integrate such a talent pool and avoid this form of reverse colonization?

Additionally this model can be seen as an attempt to extend the low volume long tail market for IT products and services into the developing world. The commercial version of the $100 laptop could itself be seen as a means of tapping into a new long tail laptop market. The basic theory being that the sum of all of the small niche markets, that can be touched via a global network, is greater than the current monolithic markets. This can be illustrated by the success of companies like eBay, which provides a generalized marketplace rather than selling a specific product.

An alternate view would be that this program could create an expectation in the minds of members of this program that would then not be fulfilled in practice leading to increased dissatisfaction. Whilst the OLPC is definitely not a magic bullet for eliminating global poverty. if it provides access to education, health, technology, economic opportunity, and more, then a few children will be able pull themselves out of poverty with no other assistance. As such, it can be a tool for education and communication that can contribute to the aid programs where these laptops are distributed. However, as with any communication media, it depends on who controls it and what they use it for.

Speaking as an optimist, I would hope that this initiative will result in more of the world’s population being able to obtain better education. And that this will be a springboard for some out of poverty. As such I really am looking forward to seeing how this initiative plays out over the next few years.

Posted Wednesday, August 23, 2006 3:09 PM by Mateen Greenway | 1 Comments

Why Software as a Service?

In Gianpaolo Carraro's blog, he has created a diagram laying out the players in Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) to the market.

It provides some insight into the disruptive players coming in and why they are investing as well as the existing players and why they can still be contenders.

One of the concepts described is to provide access to hosted software as part of the franchise deal, reducing the startup costs for bringing software into the enterprise. This kind of a licensing model will definitely be disruptive if the security and data transfer problems can be overcome. It looks to me like the innovator's dilemma will likely come into play though.

Posted Tuesday, August 22, 2006 1:34 PM by Charlie Bess | 0 Comments

Mass mind and development

I read a blog entry about Mass Collaboration and it got me thinking about open source and the impact of model driven development.

Ed Yourdon had a entry in his blog about the future of modeling. The one thing I thought was missing was the social/behavioral implications - something I've blogged about before.

The Internet has definitely changed many aspects of life (finding information, collaborating with others ...) but what affect has it had on the actual software development process? Most code is still hand crafted using 3rd generation languages. Some would say that SOA has allowed for a more leveraged approach to development (but some people say that about OO as well). Most modeling approaches are still based on a hand crafted development approach.

If you look at SaaS and SOA, mash-up techniques are being applied in a relatively rigid fashion. After all, we do have service level expectations in our business software.

Is there a different way to view this whole process that takes advantage of our highly collected mass collaboration possibilities as well as real-time pattern recognition? It is clearly something that needs more thought.

Posted Monday, August 21, 2006 8:02 PM by Charlie Bess | 0 Comments

Creeping Obsolescence

For years, digital clocks have been appearing in all manner of products. Although it seemed like a good idea, these products weren’t exactly the kind of things that you don’t leave home without. As a result, the impact of this digital clock ubiquity on watch sales barely registered. Then, along came the ever present pocket cell phone; begging the question “Is time running out for the wristwatch?

Then again, maybe the wrist watch will just transform into the wrist watch/phone/camera/gps; once they figure out how to make one that you could wear in public.

Microsoft Enters the Desktop Anti-Virus Wars

My corporate Windows PC laptop is well protected from the hostile world of the Internet. This is something that I take for granted because my company’s desktop support processes are automated, relatively unobtrusive and seem to be doing a good job taking care of those sorts of things.

My home computers are a different story. I have a couple of Apple Macs and a couple of Windows PCs, all are purely for my personal use. It was concern about viruses, spyware and the Internet that first lured me to the Mac, where I house my most important data. My PCs are primarily for net-surfing, running applications not available on the Mac and gaming.

I have never really felt comfortable with the kind of protection available for my Windows PCs. I have tried subscriptions from a number of vendors over the years but continued to have occasional suspicious “episodes.” As a result, I have re-installed the Windows Operating System and all of my software, more than once.

Microsoft is now offering something called Windows Live OneCare. This isn't a sales pitch. I don't know anything about it other than what I’ve read on Microsoft's Web site, but it does look interesting.

Are Mashups leading the way to better understanding SOA?

The publication of the recent Gartner Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle has Mashups snuggling up next to the ill defined Web 2.0 technologies, near the peak of the hype cycle. Mashups are a “popular” and interesting manifestation of how a simple approach to integration of public Web services can be achieved to provide new and innovative applications and functionality.

It is sobering to realise that Mashups are demonstrating to the business community the power of integrating services. Essentially they are similar to intermediary services that produce facades with user interfaces. Even though these basic services have been made public, they are no less integral to the businesses that are exposing them. With appropriate security safeguards in place, they are gaining advantage by extending their reach into the global network indirectly developing social and business networks and allowing applications to be developed that would not be otherwise possible. Probably the leaders in the field are eBay, Google and Amazon, to mention a few. The majority of these derived applications are free. A powerful example that integrates data from both public information (Craigslist) and proprietary data (Google Maps) is http://www.housingmaps.com.

If you need to be convinced as to the power of Mashups, and the rate of adoption and growth, take a look at The Programmable Web. The example above is one of a growing number of Mashups being referenced at this site. They also have some interesting metrics - there are 2.73 Mashups being produced every day (or 500 over the past 6 months)!

The problem these mashers are solving is of course fundamental to what we in the IT industry are trying to solve with SOA. Gartner in their latest application development hype cycle have SOA approaching the bottom of the trough of disillusionment, but give guidance that SOA is inevitable. As most of us know however, businesses have to live with legacy at all levels in their organisation and have to deal with traditional business imperatives, so the implementation of SOA must be slow and evolutionary.

Also hindering SOA is the lack of support it is getting in the area of tools and methodologies. Most of the mashers out there are developing these cool applications on the back of some very fundamental and straightforward technologies, such as PHP, PEAR, JavaScript and AJAX. Whilst arguably these technologies are not enterprise ready (although Microsoft with .NET ATLAS templates is possibly addressing this), in the hands of innovative and creative developers, they can be used to show us some of the way forward. These tools are not only solving the integration problem but also the traditional limitations that we are all aware of with the thin client technologies (browsers) – when coupled together provide not only the utility but the ease of use we need.

Although I don’t think there is much risk that the adoption of SOA (as a business enabler) will not cross the “chasm,” I do think Mashups in the hands of the early adopters, will play an important part in making the technology compelling and getting it accepted in “main street.”

An Innovative Year For Apple

As the dust settles, in the wake of Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference, we can reflect on the keynote presentation’s content. I focused in on one particular innovation in my previous post but thought I would try to include more of them in this post.

The presentation was 85 minutes long but it was filled with content relating the completion of Apple’s hardware transformation (from Power PC to Intel) and the continuing evolution and status of their next OS X operating system (Leopard). If you have the time and are interested in Apple, the video is worth watching. It was a great encapsulation of what must have been one of Apple's most productive and innovative years. It also gives us a better idea of where the rest of the PC industry will be going in the future.

There are many improvements in Leopard, like better email integration, recordable video conferencing, voice over Braille, and network searches but I will focus on a few of my favorites:

  • 64 bit support - allowing native 64 bit applications (all the way through to the user interface) to run side-by-side on the desktop alongside native 32 bit applications.
  • Time Machine – automatic on-the-fly backup of everything with a time based desktop integrated restore interface.
  • Spaces – allows creation of separate spaces allowing each space to be customized for a particular task through an intuitive interface, integrated with the desktop. We’ve seen variants of this through third party developers on Windows but this is natively integrated.
  • Web Clip, a feature of Dashboard that lets users create widgets linked directly to Web sites. A simple idea that will enable granular access to specific parts of existing Web pages.

In the keynote, Jobs further tantalized us by saying that there were other features of Leopard yet to be announced; so there’s more to come.

2006 wasn’t just another innovative year for Apple; it was the year of Apple’s transformation to Intel. Apple also clearly demonstrated a key benefit of the Intel migration (via Boot Camp); the ability to run Windows natively on Apple platforms.

With the introduction of both Vista (early 2007) and Leopard (spring 2007), it looks like the coming year is shaping up be a bellwether for the evolving personal computing experience. With entries from both Apple and Microsoft, we all win.

Ed Yourdon's Web 2.0 Mindmap

I've mentioned mind mapping as an innovation tool before. Ed Yourdon has created a mindmap structure of articles, blog links ... that frame his thoughts around Web 2.0. I linked to the download folder, since it still seems to be changing.

Although the theme of Ed's mindmap may be Web 2.0, it covers a wide range of concepts (like any mind map should) and is worth a look. Examples include: IT trends for the next 10 years.

Posted Monday, August 14, 2006 2:30 PM by Charlie Bess | 1 Comments

Apple's Time Machine

Steve Job’s keynote address, at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference, exposed a new innovation with the kind of WOW factor that we expect from Apple.

Along with the introduction of Apple’s new Leopard Operating System is a little bonus called “Time Machine.” In keeping with Apple’s reputation for spearheading personal computer innovation, “Time Machine” is the latest entry in Apple’s long list of user oriented personal computer enhancements.

Robot simulations that teach tasks

There was an article in New Scientist that describes an effort at University of Plymouth in the UK to have robots teaching tasks by saying what they are doing and then demonstrating it. The other robot simulation then performs the task. Hopefully, that would eventually lead to the robot being able to watch a person do a task and then replicate it.

If it were limited to just robots though, I am a little unclear why transferring the "program" in binary would not be more time efficient and accurate. As a demonstration of speech and video recognition by a device, it was interesting.

Must have technologies for 2020

A report from the RAND corporation titled Global Technology Revolution 2020 recently came out that describes numerous technologies that organizations should plan on using in the future and why.

This report looks at the technologies as well as the regional implications. It is long, but it does have lots of specific and useful information. I was happy to see that many of their beliefs echo the beliefs the EDS Fellows have documented in the past, as what we think will drive the next big thing in technology.

This is the 2nd document that we've come across that reinforces the work we've had underway for a couple of years. The other document, was the Power to Predict.

Posted Tuesday, August 08, 2006 3:02 PM by Charlie Bess | 2 Comments

Doing Business in 2006: Creating Jobs

I just saw a report from the World Bank titled: Doing Business in 2006: Creating Jobs. Here is a description of the 196 page report: Doing Business in 2006: Creating Jobs is the third in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. New quantitative indicators on business regulations and their enforcement can be compared across 155 countries—from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe—and over time ... The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms have worked, where and why.

This report has many interesting bits of information about what it takes to start up a company in another country as well as some of the issues faced. It is well worth a look for any person working in a global organization.

Posted Tuesday, August 08, 2006 2:58 PM by Charlie Bess | 0 Comments

Time For Application Modernization

Whenever we get into the topic of Application Modernization (Amod), we have to deal with the question, “When is the right time?” We know that, ultimately, all applications require periodic modification, improvement or replacement but we tend to avoid fixing what isn’t broken. Application modernization is viewed as optional because many of the systems that we want to modernize aren’t exactly broken.

The answer is getting a bit more clear for me these days as the objectives of Amod become better defined and the tools and processes mature. In a large enterprise, a typical application landscape often presents a somewhat chaotic scene. These are landscapes littered with old and new architectures, enterprise integration strategies, best of breed products, data management approaches and the list goes on.

In the past, when we embarked on modernization initiatives, the task often consisted of undertaking grand incremental application replacement projects supported by tools designed to handle wholesale resolution of integration dilemmas via the strategy of the month, year or decade.

In many ways, the old approach to Amod resembled the position we found ourselves in when we were fighting to use the old client server models; before the robust standards of the W3C and Internet helped show us the way.

With today's emerging standards, we can look at Amod in a different way. Taking a standards based approach will give us consistency and a better feel for when the time is right. This is further supported by the growing list of tools that make it possible to start the journey today.

In a large enterprise, an SOA approach to Amod, implemented along with application migration and improvement processes, will allow us to mine the content (with tools like those from Relativity), salvage swaths of existing code (with help from companies like Micro Focus and Oracle) and target a new level of flexibility (courtesy of Web services).

So, with the path to modernization now evolutionary, we are encouraged to focus on improvement, from a business services point of view, while mining and preserving the legacy applications for their rich, proven business content.

The power and failure of language

This past week, I was in a set of meetings dealing with project startup. Various individuals involved were aware of what they each thought a project charter was. Unfortunately, everyone was not all in agreement and a Tower of Babel situation soon developed. We all know that the IT industry has its own set of terminology, and we need to be careful when communicating with others.

To some individuals, concepts like business continuity and disaster recovery are synonymous. To others, business continuity is much larger in scope, taking into account situations like avian flu ... while disaster recovery is the information technology activities to support business continuity.

For some, hardware compatibility testing and load testing were the same. To others, two radically different levels of effort are required. With real load testing requiring actual transactions running at loads similar or even exceeding transactions. The meeting eventually evolved into people talking cross purposes.

The Covey guidance from the 7 habits of highly effective people of "seek first to understand and then to be understood" was a technique that would have been effective in moving to what everyone wanted: a common understanding of the projects and a high level definition of the tasks to be accomplished.

Unfortunately, common sense is based on the context of the situation, and we use language in an attempt to convey that context to others. That is part of the reason common sense is so uncommon. We don't use the same language in the same way

.

Another great example of this is when an infrastructure focused group is talking to an applications team about their requirements.

Infrastructure is usually centrally defined and locally leveraged. Applications are locally defined and centrally leveraged (with the possible exception of true SOA). We can all use the same words and come up with a radically different understanding of what was agreed upon. Running through scenarios seems to be one of the best ways to overcome this problem.

Posted Monday, August 07, 2006 6:51 PM by Charlie Bess | 0 Comments

ACM Queue article on HCI

Changes in Human Computer Interface is critical to the next big shift in computing. In this blog, I've mentioned attention management and other context-aware techniques.

This article from the ACM queue looks at many of these same issues, both from a historical and future vision perspective.

In the end software trumps specialized hardware

I've been in a number of meetings with Sun this past week talking about why Sun is different, so I was looking around at their blogs. One of the entries in Jonathan Schwartz's blog caught my attention.

He is making the case that although specialized hardware may be required when a new technology comes on the scene, eventually its capabilities roll into more commodity hardware via advances in software.

Nicholas Carr provides a great example as well with the phone answering machine.

A great example of that taking place right now is with system virtualization. Where you'll dedicate a small portion of the overall compute load to a specialized virtual processor (e.g., firewall, EAI). This isolates the main business processing function from a very specialized and possibly dangerous IT function.

As we look to the data center of the future, having a wider range of virtualized special processors will provide an environment that has higher reliability and greater security, without the need for dedicated hardware. The skills of the people who work in the environment will still be specialized though.

It's strange, but in the consumer space it may work the opposite way. I was playing MP3s on my computer long before the dedicated MP3 player. On the other hand I now watch movies, listen to music, take pictures and talk to people with my cell phone. Maybe the route for the consumer market just has a few detours along the way.

Posted Tuesday, August 01, 2006 1:29 PM by Charlie Bess | 1 Comments

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