Future Vision
by
Randy Mears
Charlie’s post “The future isn’t what it used to be” got me thinking about the game of predicting the future - again. After some deliberation, I have decided that predicting the future may be more in the domain of literature (specifically science fiction) than the more scientific disciplines like chemistry, physics, mathematics or even engineering.
While science and engineering bring us the technologies of the future, futurology is not the scientist’s or engineer’s domain. There is a difference between scientific prediction and predicting the future. When a writer paints a picture of the future, it is not necessarily bounded by current scientific possibilities. It is this unbounded landscape that allows bold and exciting futures to be crafted more as art than science. Many science fiction writers have a solid foundation in science so the fact that some of these futures come true is not purely coincidental. These writers have given us much in the way of future visions, in some cases, such visions have come to pass because their very prediction may have served as a roadmap.
I am struck by the work of a couple of very popular writers; specifically Jules Verne and Arthur C. Clarke. I think of Verne as the grand old man of literary scientific prediction. I have no doubt that Clarke will be considered just as prescient to those who study him 100 years from now.
So where do the Futurists fit into all this, and what is a Futurist anyway? If Arthur C. Clarke calls himself a Futurist, and I think he does, he gets no argument from me. His life's work, to date, contains a stunning track record of successful prognostication and places him in a class with very few peers. If we start with his Three Laws, we get a good understanding of how a good Futurist thinks. When we look deeper, we find that his works include numerous remarkable predictions including (but not limited to) communication satellites in geosynchronous orbit, asteroid tracking initiative (Spaceguard), notebook computers, fax machines, space shuttles, gravity slingshot for space travel, ion drive, the millennium bug and man landing on the moon (predicted it to happen ten years later than it actually did). For Futurists and Science Fiction writers alike, he has set the bar high.
Not all of these predictions sound sensible; Clarke predicted that an elevator to space would be necessary before we could build a real presence on the moon. This was well before the materials existed that would make such a project possible. Now, with carbon nanotubes, the seemingly absurd becomes interesting. When asked when the elevator would be built, Clark’s answer was, “About 50 years after everyone has stopped laughing.” Indeed, I now hear but a few chuckles.
