EDS' Next Big Thing Blog: Read and Respond to What the EDS Fellows Say About Technology

Microsoft Vista Released – Sort Of

The big news on the PC front today is the release of Microsoft Vista. According to this MSNBC article, there is a caveat; consumers can’t get it on their home PC until Jan 30th. This business-only release approach is a good way for businesses to get some early hands-on experience with the new OS, but it is likely that only a small percentage of businesses will actually migrate to Vista before the consumer versions hit the street. This is particularly true for large corporations.

Consumer adoption will probably begin earlier than business adoption even though businesses can get the product first. It is more likely that the march to Vista will really begin when the new crop of consumer PCs start shipping with Vista pre-loaded.

High-Tech The Ancient Greek Way

A little over 100 years ago, the remnants of a complicated clock-work mechanism were discovered in an ancient ship-wreck near the island of Antikythera. The first I ever heard of this device, about 30 years ago, was in a book called “Chariots of the Gods?.” In specious arguments designed to support various ancient astronaut theories, the device was cited as proof that aliens had previously visited earth and assisted in the device’s design and development (the argument concluded that the Greeks couldn’t have done this all by themselves). I didn’t really buy that ancient astronaut argument but I remember examining pictures of the crusty green artifact and thinking that its secrets might never be known.

The device, called the Antikythera Mechanism, was actually built around 80 B.C. by earthbound Greeks. Because of the its ruined condition, its primary purpose and actual inner workings have been a long standing mystery. Modern technology has been used to figure out much of it, and now a research project designed to unravel the device’s mysteries, has been completed. Results will be released next week, and I have no doubt that all of the big questions about how the device works will be answered.

This research is important for a number of reasons; but I like the fact that it is another scientific milestone achieved using an inter-disciplinary science project to solve a complex multi-disciplinary problem. This is what we do in academia and, in many ways; this kind of enthusiastic cooperation is what we aim for when we produce our best and most complex IT business solutions.

Nanotube TVs May Be Next

Yea that’s right, according to this article, Motorola is transitioning from the laboratory phase to the manufacturing development phase on their high-definition carbon nanotube based FED (Field Emission Display) TVs. The manufacturing development phase is where the factory gets designed and built. This whole process, including manufacturing production, will likely be outsourced to a yet-to-be-determined manufacturer. Nothing I have read thus far has given me an idea of how long it will take to get from the beginning of manufacturing development to products in stores. Experience tells me it will be at least a couple of years. After all, there are plants to build and manufacturing hurtles to overcome.

FEDs have been cooking in labs for about a decade so Motorola won’t be the only company that will produce these dazzling TVs. Other manufacturers like Canon and Toshiba are planning to ship non-nanotube based FED TVs by the end of 2007 (called SED but based on the same principle). Since nanotubes are the most efficient electronic emitters, nanotube solutions should outperform the others. It appears that Motorola may not have the first production FED TV but, unless another company like Samsung pulls a rabbit out of a hat, I think they still have a lock on getting out the first ones based on nanotubes.

Is Programming The Problem?

I just read an interesting interview with Bjarne Stroustrup. In the interview, he talks about the highly variable quality of software and programming. As the designer and implementer of the C++ programming language, Bjarne is considered a legend by many object oriented programmers, but he also has his share of detractors (not everyone likes C++).

The interview touches on the impact of bad software on our technological civilization and acknowledges that some blame goes to programming language complexity, while most goes to our development methods. There is also a forward looking view with some suggested remedies for the current mess, but not much of a feeling that things will get better anytime soon.

Even though I am not necessarily nodding in agreement, he does make a few good points. At the very least, it is an interesting perspective from one of the greats.

Device Convergence, iPod and Zune

So, here I am, back on the topic of iPod and Zune. Such a seemingly insignificant consumer electronic goodies certainly have had their share of attention. Articles about Zune have become ubiquitous in the press so its designated moniker as “The iPod Killer” keeps both devices top-of-mind.

With all the lukewarm talk about Zune, wouldn’t it be more likely for evolution to be the actual iPod killer? With mounting evidence, like patent applications and manufacturing deals, that Apple is indeed working on an iPod phone, I think the answer is obvious. Zune may well be too little too late. It is more likely that device convergence will get the job done while aptly denying victory to the insubstantial improvements of the competition. IPod’s time on top, beginning 5 years ago, is entering its dotage. With the promise of commodity pricing for the most elaborate music/video players now almost assured, it is likely that Apple’s innovation engine will kill the iPod, as we know it, before another 5 years pass.

It is, in the end, really about miniaturization, memory, processing power, communications and battery life enabling the convergence of those personal technologies with which we litter our lives. It is this convergence that will force the evolution of the iPod and Apple’s penchant for consumer product innovation that will yield iPod’s heir.

Nothing New About Robot Workers

This article about Ubiko, a humanoid robot that gets paid by the hour, doesn’t seem to be worth taking seriously until you consider this. Industrial robots have already replaced many workers, particularly in the manufacturing industry. These industrial robots are well adapted to assembly lines where the work comes to them. In most cases, they perform a very limited set of tasks while firmly anchored to the ground.

The difference for Ubiko comes down to its place in the world. With its increased level of autonomy, mobility and interactivity, Ubiko can communicate and interact with a customer in a human language (albeit at a very rudimentary level). In its current form and at the current price point, this particular robot serves only as a bellwether for what we all, deep down, know will come.

MEMS Motion Sensors Go Mainstream

With all the press lately about Sony's Playstation 3 and Nintendo's Wii the popular focus for game consoles is primarily on better graphics and faster processors. While in the past, game platforms seem to have competed on the basis of software, graphics and speed, the latest generation of consoles let game controllers finally get in on the action.

These new game controllers make use of tiny silicon based MEMS chips that serve as motion detectors. This addition of motion sensitive game control will represent a significant enhancement for players and more user interface options for game designers and developers. Nintendo's Wii controller even ups the ante by adding infra-red sensors that allow the user point to things on screen.

So what's the big deal? These capabilities were on the leading edge of both technology and cost just a few years ago, migrating from the auto industry, they have now found their way into mass distribution via the consumer electronics pipeline. Thanks to MEMS technology, these capabilities are mass produced on silicon wafers and sold at consumer price points.

Game controllers are just the beginning. These new MEMS based motion sensing solutions will soon find their way into everything that would benefit. Of particular interest to me is how they will improve user interfaces for mobile IT technologies. One thing that comes to mind immediately for me is the long awaited affordable and practical gesture interface.

Another Approach to the Battery Problem

Batteries are one of my favorite topics. I don't know whether this is a side effect of living through the aftermath of hurricane Katrina or just the deep understanding that power is the life's blood of modern technology. Maybe it's a little bit of both. I found this article about “Charging Batteries without Wires” and it struck a chord. Though it is an idea that has been alive since Tesla, the article indicates that a viable safe solution for wireless power distribution may soon be within reach.

Today, when we talk wireless, we are talking about communications. Add power to the conversation and we will be talking about a truly wireless world. Don't throw away your batteries because they will be included.

It must be Kismet; my home computer is now on Vista and Office 2007

The week after Office 2007 and Vista go to Mfg., my main hard drive breaks on my home computer. By the time I got home to fix it, both products show up in MSDN. I spend most of Friday night and Saturday salvaging what I could from the last full back up and any interim data and brought the new drives up with Vista and Office 2007.

So far Vista has been a breeze. Although they've diminished the functionality of MovieMaker (no more being able to have it search for scene changes) and the audio controls are harder to work with than in XP. Overall it has been easy for my wife to make the switch.

The backup capabilities of Vista are significantly enhanced. For some reason I was drawn to those features especially. ;-)

Office 2007 on the other hand is taking a great deal more effort. For those who don't know shortcuts (like CTL-A for select all), it was very frustrating finding the tasks you were familiar with. Things are definitely not where you're used to finding them. On the other hand, if you have never used office before, it may be more productive.

I have found only a few programs that will not run in Vista. There is an OS emulation mode that seems to help out of the few programs that cared.

My wife's comment about the experience was "If you wanted to switch to Vista, there must have been an easier way."

Free Cell Phones

The news that Google’s CEO is talking-up free cell phones only makes sense when you think about Google’s ad based revenue model. The idea that everything should be free for those of us willing to put-up with advertising has been with us since the Internet first started serving up free content. In reality, many of us won’t settle for the basic free stuff, opting instead to spend a little money on more robust, faster, richer or advertising-free capabilities.

That this topic would be broached by Google is no surprise. After all, Google derives virtually all of its revenue from selling text ads on the Web's most popular search service. Logically, and from a Google revenue standpoint, doesn't this mean that we should ultimately look for added value search services from Google, for a price? Maybe not, because it does make an odd sort of sense that searching free content should itself be free.

Is the message here that free communications will ultimately be added to the list of other widely available free services? I suppose it is possible; after all, we already have free search, free communities, free software, free information, free mail and free storage.

High Tech at the Ballpark

When we think about high tech at the ballpark, it usually comes down to big display screens, projectors, sound systems and vendor automation. As consumers, those are the things that we actually notice. Stadiums, arenas and ball parks have been benefiting from improvements in technology for many years, but the changes have been slow, subtle and often almost invisible to the public. It’s not like those of us who have been involved with mobile technologies haven’t been proposing more customer centric modern technology solutions in these venues, we just haven’t had much luck on the adoption side of things.

If Cisco Systems has its way, the ballpark of the future will be Cisco Field in Oakland, CA, and the fans will notice the difference. The great thing for Cisco is that, if successful, the ballpark itself will become the Cisco Systems consumer showcase and the model for ballparks, arenas and stadiums that follow. With Cisco behind it, we should expect success because, with the name "Cisco" emblazoned on this edifice, failure is not one of their options.

Opening Up Java

The inventory of open-source computer program code just significantly increased, thanks to Sun Microsystems. This recent announcement, about Sun making Java open-source, is a significant one given Java’s historic impact on Web application delivery. Java will now benefit from the open-source community’s penchant for improvement and refinement while finally establishing itself as an industrial-strength non-proprietary Web development technology.

It also seems like a good time for Sun to pass this particular baton to open-source. Ultimately, both should benefit.

I Can't Get Enough Of Nanotechnology

So, here I go again, chatting up Nanotechnology. Whenever I think about it, I am “blown-away” by its potential. It’s no wonder that, when I find an article like this one that is so forward looking and thought provoking, I am compelled to ensure that everyone sees it too.

What really excites me about Nanotechnology is its diversity. As the article above demonstrates, impact is in electronics, medicine, biology, digital technologies, material's science, chemistry and more. The last major technology discipline that I can identify as having comparable widespread impact is still with us today. It was and is called Information Technology, and I can't get enough of it either.

Physical Markup Language (PML)

As RFID and Biometric technologies become more prevalent, there is an increasing need for a taxonomy to support the recording and manipulation of information about the physical world within IT systems.

I was therefore interested when I came across this Web site belonging to the MIT Auto-Id Center describing the concept of a Physical Markup Language that is attempting to address this integration between the physical and computing worlds.

The Physical Markup Language (PML) is described as a modular toolset providing the building blocks needed to construct complex descriptions of physical objects, as well as commercial and industrial processes.

Intersection of this physical description with geographical data would provide a good way of modeling the real world. But it raises the question, if an object is not where the computer says it is, is it the computer or reality that is at fault?

Microsoft's Zune Set to Hit the US Market

The long awaited Zune will go on sale in the US on November 14th. All may not be smooth sailing for Microsoft’s Ipod killer if you believe some of the press. It should be an interesting product launch given current Ipod’s dominance in the market. With its wireless communication capabilities, Zune may have real “in,” but don’t expect Apple to go gently into that good night. For products like Zune, there may be an Achilles heel; with battery life continuing to represent a significant barrier for power hungry consumer electronic solutions, it will be interesting to see just how well Zune fares, given all of its power hungry “extras.”

What's in a word and is this really a new version of the enterprise?

In Optimize magazine, there was an article about new media techniques in the enterprise. This month there was a debate about what they are calling Enterprise 2.0 (new media techniques in the enterprise) and if it dumbs-down the organization.

Frankly, I was a bit bewildered by the whole premise that these techniques constitute "Enterprise 2.0." Granted they are all techniques that should improve collaboration across and between organizations. This is an important factor in this more flattened global environment many people work, but to call it Enterprise 2.0 is a bit pretentious. The thought that better communications techniques dumb-down the whole environment was a bit condescending.

I’d say automated workflow, attention management, having a model based enterprise and enabling the enterprise to respond to events rather than having people embedded in “standard” process is a better view of what would be an “Enterprise 2.0.” Wikis, blogs… have more to do with enabling the employees to support the enterprise needs rather than a whole new version of the enterprise. These tools are more about enabling a new social structure and culture than a new enterprise. Maybe I view it that way because I am into automation...

When Andrew McAfee wrote his original entry defining Enterprise 2.0, it seemed to be accepted rapidly by the blogging community. On the other hand, it does make me question how much of our economy’s enterprises base their revenue stream on blogs, wikis and other techniques. It just seems to devalue the word “enterprise” to me.

2001 'til today -- a value space odyssey

I was thinking about the technologies we were enthused about as short as 5 years ago and the current state of many of those technologies today.

Back in 2001, it was all about processor speed — now we're fired up about multi-core. We may not be able to afford the speed. Instead we'll use virtualization to get the usage up for the processor capabilities we have. 802.11b was new, and we've now gone through G and are on the way to N and Wi-Max. Wireless is an expectation.

We were starting to talk about service oriented architectures and are still talking about SOA with mainly a future tense. Smart cards were on the cusp of having real impact. Smart cards are still on the cusp of something. RFID was just around the corner, and RFID is closer but widespread use is still just around the corner. Internet banking was saying we should put in ATMs and shut down branches. Now I swear there are more branches near my house than ever before. The whole view of customer interaction for higher margin business has shifted. We've moved from replacing legacy systems with ERP systems to integrating legacy systems with ERP systems.

Although ITIL existed back in 2001, it now seems to be really getting attention.

It is clear that we're turning more data into information, but there just never seems to be enough value to meet the needs. The lifespan of products has continued to shrink, but has the value delivered by them changed. When I think about the effort expended and the value delivered, the difference between two organizations can easily be an order of magnitude. What technologies should we be betting on now that will have a better track record?

• Mobility - I think it will be a totally different mobility than what we think of today
• Utility computing - In a way, it's the resurgence of the data centre
• Workflow and automation - the whole concept of how work flows in organizations will undergo a significant shift

I've already mentioned a few like ERP, ITIL, Virtualization.

The Web 2.0 Investment Bubble

A recent article on CNET begs an interesting question. Will the Web 2.0 investment bubble spur another wave of Internet entrepreneurship? The answer is yes, but only a little. To me, the Internet bubble of the 90s compares to an earthquake while the Web 2.0 bubble will only measure up to a few small aftershocks. The Web 2.0 wave, more evolutionary than revolutionary, lacks the disruptive influence that the initial Internet wave of the 90s brought.

At any rate, look for the big boys of the 90s Internet bubble to be the primary beneficiaries while Internet “1.0” applications get added to the list of legacy applications ripe for replacement. For most companies, this replacement activity, typical of legacy replacement activity, will happen in the background and only on an as needed basis.

Is blogging an ideal means of expression for introverts?

I was in a discussion the other day with Kristie Wells of BrainJams. We were both at the Society for New Communications Research meeting. She is working on creating the Social Media Club, a way for people to interact face-to-face as well as use social media. The topic came up that some of the bloggers behavior in person was radically different than their on-line personae.

We wondered what the ratio of introverts is in the blogging community vs. that same ratio for the normal population. I know I tend to be introverted when in group settings (INTJ).

It made me wonder if there is something about the activity of blogging that allows people who tend to be introverted to express themselves in a way they feel more comfortable. At the least, the introvert can take their time and state it the way the want, without being interrupted.

Anyway if the ratio is different for bloggers, the kind of interaction needed at the Social Networking Club will need to be adjusted as well. The normal social meeting techniques will have the extroverts take over the meeting and the introverts will never come back again.

I think I voted

Since I am on the road all the time, I've early voted for the last 5-6 elections. I do my part and don't have to stand in line to do it.

For the last 2 elections, we've had electronic voting machines. I've found the experience to be smooth and painless. The only problem is the same one I have for some of the airline kiosks and that's when there is only one thing on the page and I've done it, I'm used to the application moving on to the next screen. On the voting machine, I complete the task and then have to go to the bottom of the screen and click 'submit' or some button that expresses an equal amount of finality. I'm sure some UI person was basking in the consistency of the experience. Definitely no chance for any hanging chad here.

I found the security at the site -- tight, especially since it was being operated by a number of retirees that are probably not as computer savvy as everyone might wish. They did seem to be having a good time though.

It does make me wonder what these folks will do if we ever can vote at home.