EDS' Next Big Thing Blog: Read and Respond to What the EDS Fellows Say About Technology

Friday Is iPhone Day, But You Already Knew That

The Apple iPhone goes on sale Friday, June 29th at 6:00pm local time, all over the US. Outlets will include AT&T stores, Apple Stores and Apple’s on-line store. Chances are slim that this information is news to you, but repeat it I must.

In a world where cell phone software has often been more of a compromise than a triumph it is now Apple’s turn to weigh-in with what has been characterized, by some, as the most anticipated consumer product since the beginning of time!

The iPhone is, by far, the most hyped product in my lifetime. To put it in perspective; I have seen more iPhone news in the two weeks ahead of its release than I saw Vista news for the entire year that preceded Vista's release. With so much hype drawing such serious attention to this product, can Apple's iPhone and AT&T's network live up to such great expectations? The answer will come slowly but, by the end of this week hundreds of thousands of consumers will begin the process of hands-on discovery needed to give us that answer. While consumers are expected to crave the iPhone, businesses are expected to keep their distance. In my opinion, this isn’t a bad thing. After all, we’re talking Apple here and, with Apple, it’s the consumer’s turn to go first; that is as it should be.

Interested in more information, here are some of my favorite recent links:

• Newsweek’s First Look
• New York Times' Review
• Apple’s guided tour
• YouTube Video Support
• Wikipedia

Keeping Track Of Your Gadgets

When it comes to personal digital gadgets like cell phones, laptops and cameras, one constant problem is keeping track of them. In this CNN article about new services to help consumers keep track of their gadgets, one thing is abundantly clear. There are lots of reasons why we need to keep track of these personal devices. In the first place, digital content is often more valuable to the device owner than is the device itself. Having good backups would seem like a good solution but it is usually more complex than that. On the one hand you have data that was just captured (e.g. a digital photo) and has not been backed up or transferred to another medium (hence it will be lost forever) while, on the other hand, the nature of the data is such that it should be kept secret (since it can open the door to identity theft and other privacy issues).

The CNN article talks about a number of services, from personalized labels to software solutions, all aimed at recovering your device should it go missing. The problem is that each device has a potentially different solution and software isn’t always an option.

With all the devices that we tend to have these days (cell phones, notebook PCs, MP3 Players, and the like), a comprehensive solution is needed, and that solution appears to be missing from the consumer marketplace. Without unifying device and data protection standards aimed at mobile devices, a comprehensive solution won’t be possible any time soon.

So where does that leave us? We can protect ourselves from data loss by backing up the data that resides on our devices. Although that can be difficult to do with devices like cell phones, it is well worth the effort to figure it out. Backups don't cover everything; even with backups, newly created data will continue to be vulnerable to loss, so a strategy for transferring or backing up things like pictures, videos and audio recordings on a timely basis is also necessary. Buying a huge capacity storage card for your camera does not mean that you should wait till it fills up before you transfer the pictures to your desktop PC. They should be transferred as soon as possible to minimize the risk of losing them.

As far as protecting your identity information from prying eyes, use password protection and/or encryption when possible, keeping in mind that encryption and passwords are not foolproof and most can be hacked. I suppose some protection is better than none at all. The best recourse would be not placing sensitive data like credit card numbers, account numbers, passwords or diaries on mobile devices, especially the one without such safeguards.

The Personal Compute Part Of IT Modernization

Modernization is all the rage in IT these days, and for a good reason. There was a time when anything that came out on a computer was, by definition, modern and ultimately better. That was the conventional wisdom, you computerized it and that somehow made it better. These days we see things a bit differently. Computers have been with us for decades and, while the technology has improved dramatically, the resulting solutions are still often firmly grounded in the ways of the past, still carrying much of the old baggage that we need to shed. We all understand that computerizing a solution does not necessarily make it better; this is particularly true from the user's viewpoint.

In this missive from Sun Microsystem's Greg Papadopoulous, we get a hint at a better way forward. A way where design is not just a slowly evolving set of improvements in the way we have done things in the past, but a new approach that is not based on taking an old concept and just replicating it while adding some digital enhancements. How about an approach that instead integrates with our lifestyles and challenges our technology developers? What if such solutions were the only ones we considered acceptable?

Since we're so intent on IT modernization these days, shouldn’t we want to do it right this time?

The IT Everywhere Trend

Over the past 50 years we have seen information technology evolve. This evolution has substantially impacted the hardware, software, processes and peripherals that have made IT into what it is today. A major difference between now and then is primarily the make-up of the key players, geographically. From a global view the point of the spear for IT innovation had been centered in the western world; at least until the 20th century arrived.

So the century rolls from the 20th to the 21st and the world becomes flat. Now, as the global economy grows explosively, so grows the PC. According to this article, "Nothing is changing IT like the adoption of technology across the developing world." The implications for everyone involved in technology development could be staggering.

If Forrester Research's prediction that there will be 2.25 billion PCs in the world by 2015 comes true then the global PC count will have almost tripled in just 8 years. That won’t happen without the direct collaboration of the developing world and the "old guard", like Microsoft, Intel, Dell, etc. But it won't just be about the old guard; as far as IT innovation goes, forget about the point of the spear and expect it to come from everywhere.

Safety Rules For Nanotechnology

Remember when scientists started experimenting with genetic engineering? From the outset, these scientists were concerned about the safety factor. Not just safety concerns for the biotechnology worker but for the flora and fauna of the planet as well. By the time genetic engineering reached the public consciousness, science fiction writers and scientific watchdogs had already envisioned and written about enough global nightmare scenarios to ensure that major steps would be taken in the name of safety.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that there isn't risk; I'm just saying that I think scientists in biotechnology reflect on the dangers as a matter of course and that they take measures to safeguard all of us. In the US, the CDC Office of Health Safety has published its 4th Edition of the “Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories” handbook. Is government involvement and regulation the reason why we don’t seem to be as worried about it as we used to be?

Nanotechnology emerged differently. Though scientists may have been concerned about the negative effects of these tiny particles on biology, it wasn't where the public or the government was focused. With all the talk about nanorobots and super strong materials like nanotubes, we were focused more on the magic of this new frontier? Were we forgetting the lessons we should have learned from asbestos and coal dust? In the early days when nanotubes were first coming out of the labs, were the scientists concerned about whether or not it was safe for them to waft around in the air and, ultimately, into their lungs? It seems like a logical concern but was it actually something they were thinking about and avoiding? I really don't know.

What about nanotubes in consumer products? Are there risks for consumers when these products shatter, melt or age? Considering that nanotechnology products are proliferating and appearing in everything from sports equipment to cosmetics, shouldn’t there at least be a safety manual?

DuPont and Environmental Defense (a national non-profit organization) have decided to take on the problem by producing a comprehensive framework for the responsible development and use of nanoscale materials. It is called "The Nano Risk Framework" and it is aimed at the global audience. Not everyone is satisfied with this voluntary approach and feel that government regulation combined with a wider debate is necessary.

Will governments ultimately weigh-in on this topic with some good old-fashion regulation? I certainly hope so.

Corporate Email And Apple's iPhone

With the launch of Apple's iPhone imminent, many users of corporate mobile email systems (like RIMM’s BlackBerry) are beginning to ask the question, "Will my corporate email work on an iPhone?" I have always assumed that such a combination wouldn't work but I don't actually know the facts just yet. It is a very good question that is explored with greater depth in this WSJ article (Subscription required).

Unfortunately, and as I suspected, it doesn't look good for the iPhone. Hang in there though; time has a way of fixing these kinds of things.

Wireless USB

This recent announcement from Alereon could be the beginning of big changes for device connectivity and could literally untangle your personal computing environment. This is because it will enable wireless USB vial ultrawideband (UWB). What's important is that Alereon's solution is able to meet worldwide regulatory requirements as well as USB-IF certification. It could be a real door-opener for high-speed wireless device communication, not just for USB but other device communication technologies as well; like future versions of Bluetooth. It's all part of the current WiMedia specification.

Alereon's announcement doesn't do a very good job of spelling out the implications of this technology, particularly for the consumer. I found this article, it does a nice job of summing things up.

What's surprising is that consumer versions of these new Alereon chipset based USB hubs are expected to reach the consumer market in a month or two. Granted, it won't be really spectacular until wireless USB devices and computers begin to appear on the market, but wireless USB hubs will make it useful for some of us in the short term. Isn't it interesting how quickly Wi-anything seems to hit the consumer market?

Barriers to reuse within Microsoft new software development techniques

I mentioned last week that I was at Microsoft Tech Ed. One of the things that's be gnawing at me is the relationship between software factories and composite applications.

Software factories are ideal for placing the rigor into a development process that’s requires off-shore resources. The factory can make it easier for developers to comply with enterprise standards and facilitate the reuse of specific services ... making the most of the limited communications pipeline between remote teams. The software factory concept’s major focus is on automation of the creation activity.

Composite applications (in general) are created in a more iterative, agile approach, facilitating the assembly of existing components. Unfortunately, there does not seem to be much in the way of tooling and automated process to facilitate the assembly of a composite application from an existing set of enterprise services. I could have missed it, but if I have a service (e.g., customer) that I want to build into my composite application it is a manual process for me to know what, where and how I should do this when assembling. I guess that is not any worse than the state of Object-Oriented development in many enterprises, but we should be beyond that, we’re talking about enterprise services... that are already running in production.

It seems like there is a need to have the same level of facilitated assembly of solutions that the model driven development approach has been working on for years, but simpler and more business/end user oriented. Having these based on standard industry frameworks and models would also help during mergers and acquisitions as well as training new personnel.

I asked last week in the blog post about the percentage of application development efforts that could (should?) be accomplished using composite application techniques today? Now I wonder if the stumbling block for adoptions is the lack of enterprise knowledge base infrastructure to support the folks in finding the services that already exist. Without the help in finding these capabilities, too few of the services will meet the promise of their reuse potential.

It seems that populating this service knowledge base would need to be a key component of any enterprise software service factory approach.

AT&T’s New $10 Broadband

AT&T has started offering broadband Internet service for only $10 per month. According to this article, no official announcement has come out in the press and the offer is neatly buried under "Term contract plans" on AT&Ts Web site. Having my doubts I went to their site and verified it for myself.

The availability of a $10 broadband connection in the US is real news. The downside is that it requires a 1 year contract. The kicker is that the modem is free and broadband is now available for about what users were paying for 56-kb modem connections. With more than a ten-fold increase in download speed over 56-kb, we should see a significant increase in broadband users. Perhaps that’s why AT&T is keeping it on the down-low; to avoid the possibility of a stampede.

The Greening of IT

Recently EDS joined one of the many IT organizations oriented around energy efficient computing – Climate Savers. We’ve written a few blog entries on the impact of power like: this and this. In fact if I include the impact of battery technology, it seems to be one of the topics that we seem to go back to more than just about any other.

The Climate Savers group has some pretty aggressive goals -- “By 2010, the Climate Savers Computing Initiative will cut greenhouse gas emissions in an amount equal to removing more than 11 million cars from the road or shutting down 20 500-megawatt coal-fired power plants – a significant step in reducing the emissions affecting our planet,” said Pat Gelsinger, senior vice president and general manager of Intel’s Digital Enterprise Group.

Power utilization appears to be a driver of change within more and more industries. Virtualization is going to have tremendous impact on the efficiency and power consumption of the data centre of the future. New CPU architectures and the use of multi-core technologies (like Sun’s efforts around CoolThreads) is also having its effect on reducing the power hungry dependence we’ve developed on over clocked monolithic processors. The implications on how we write code though have yet to make their way into the universities or IT shops. This is much more than just an infrastructure play.

Is Better, Faster & Cheaper a Driver or a Problem?

I was talking with one of the other EDS fellows about the future of technology and what is a foundation for thinking about it. One of the things we discussed was exponential change. There is the exponential change of technology capability (e.g., Moore’s Law), there is the data explosion enabled by more capability at a lower cost enabling technology to permeate the entire environment. There is also the exponential growth of change itself, essentially changing faster than any one individual can comprehend.

I pushed back a bit in our conversation saying “When is good enough, enough?” Will there be a point where it costs more to add the new capability than it could possibly be worth? When is more data is too much data? When there are no mechanisms to simplify the change to the point, where we can use it?

Or does that just drive us to automate more… essentially a positive feedback loop.

Since I am more of a early adopter and willing to put up with quite a bit of technology turmoil (e.g. , MS Server 2008, Sun SPOTS), I started slugging down the slope of defending technology, until I caught myself.

How much of the market is an early adopter? Not that much. What value is there to stability? Actually, quite a bit. Most organizations want a solid foundation that can be counted on in their systems. Running the latest technology is important for some, but we can’t confuse that with important for all. Everyone wants to have better, faster, cheaper but in reality 2 out of 3 is the most we can hope for.

The Multi-touch User Interface Thing

Touch screens have been with us for a very long time. We see them everywhere from handheld computers to cash registers to navigation systems to ATMs. There is nothing really new about them, at least not the ones we currently encounter on a daily basis. That will soon change with the introduction of Apple’s iPhone as its multi-touch screen enters the marketplace on June 29th; just over a week from now. Later this year, using a different technology, Microsoft’s Surface will bring multi-touch to desktop computing as well.

So what’s the big deal about a touch screen interface that can handle more than one touch at a time? Is it really much different than a single touch version? This Time Magazine article does a good job answering that question . The important thing is that when you combine multi-touch with a suitable set of interface metaphors and lots of compute power you can end up with a more natural, very responsive and closer to seamless connection between the real and the virtual. That’s not a bad thing when you are trying to manipulate objects on your computer’s screen. Recognizing a device, like a camera, that is placed on the screen and dealing with it as such (by downloading its pictures and displaying them for fingertip manipulation) is just an added bonus.

If you've been following this blog you have probably noticed that one of the things that I've been waiting for is a clue to what the next big step in user interfaces might be. There have been a number of innovations, like the tablet PC and motion sensors, but none that struck me as a significant evolutionary step toward a successor to the GUI. I continue to sense that multi-touch is such a step.

So, I am left mostly with questions. As some solutions transition from the GUI to the TUI (Tactile User Interface), will multi-touch spur the beginning of the next UI wave? Based on the signals from both Apple and Microsoft, that could be a yes. What if you throw in a little motion detection and voice command? Do we have to wait for it all before we can embrace what's next? Only time and the end user will tell.

Biometric Payments Without Special Hardware

Most biometric systems require specialized equipment, like fingerprint scanners, hand geometry readers or specialized video cameras. These systems are fine for on-site applications like access control, computer security or workplace employee time tracking, but they have had little traction when it comes to securing Internet based transactions.

When it comes to purchasing items over the Internet, all we really need is a connected computer and a valid credit card. Security continues to be a serious problem that is typically augmented by ensuring that the purchased items are only shipped to the credit card's billing address. It's an old security measure that seems to work fairly well. Another way to improve security would be to require biometric information to be included in the transaction; enter "Voice Pay." With Voice Pay, a biometric layer would be added to an Internet purchase and the only additional hardware required, a telephone, would likely be readily available. Voice Pay wouldn’t just be useful for Internet based transactions; it would enable a whole new level of telephone-only transactions (if it catches on).

Although biometric security systems can be beneficial when implemented at the right level, I think Voice Pay may be missing that mark. As far as the security side of things goes, I have to say, I don’t get it. Unless I missed something here, it is not the consumer but the seller that is protected by this system. For the typical consumer, there seems to be significant burden with little benefit because:

1. A credit card (even one registered on the Voice Pay system) is still subject to the same potential abuses as before it was registered
2. It is the consumer’s responsibility to sign-up
3. It is the consumer’s private information that is stored on yet another database
4. Transaction complexity increases, at the consumer level, for a typical Internet purchase

The consumer is expected to do all the work but appears to receive little in return. To the developers of this technology, voice authentication may be the "way to go," but in order to protect the consumer, the seller and the credit card provider, it needs to be integrated with a credit card’s complete set of processes.

Although Voice Pay is a good example of the kinds of two-channel authentication systems some banks are moving toward, by implementing is as a removable layer it will serve primarily to secure the seller at the expense of the buyer.

A Major Break in the Blu-ray versus HD DVD War?

The last time I wrote about the topic of Blu-ray versus HD-DVD was in April. At that time it was looking like Blu-ray was rapidly outpacing HD-DVD.

In more recent news, Blockbuster is beginning to weigh-in on the subject. Since Blockbuster has been renting HD-DVD and Blu-ray disks in 250 test stores since last year, they are in a good position to judge these markets. Their findings: consumers were choosing Blu-ray titles more than 70% of the time. As a result Blockbuster will begin renting only Blu-ray high definition titles in 1,450 stores while continuing to support HD-DVD only in its 250 test stores. This could be a serious blow to HD-DVD, when combined with other issues, like fewer available titles and limited studio support; it seems just a matter of time before the war is won.

While the controversy continues, some consumers have decided to avoid the fray and wait-it-out. Others are even hoping that high definition video-on-demand becomes available soon and obviates the need to purchase a high-definition player at all. Who will be the winner then?

Bizarro Browser World

It was less than two years ago that Microsoft announced that it would stop producing new versions of its Internet Explorer Web browser for Apple Macintosh Computers. In the personal computer world of Microsoft and, oh by the way, Apple, this was par for the course. Macintosh users weren't too upset; after all, it wasn't like Microsoft was dropping the Mac version of MS Office!

Suddenly, in what appeared to me to be an unexpected and bizarre warp in the personal computer universe, Apple announced and released the beta version of its Safari 3 Web browser for Windows-based PCs. All this amid claims, by Steve Jobs, that Safari performs twice as fast as Internet Explorer. His comments about the superiority of Safari 3 extended to other browsers as well, including Firefox and Opera. But don't just take my word for it, check it out for yourself.

Now I don’t know about you, but I love this kind of public theatre. It is something that has been missing from the computer business for the last 15 years or so. Could this signal a new wave of high-spirited competition and rapid innovation, or am I just engaging in wishful thinking?

The Dream Of Wireless Power Transmission

As pre-occupied as I am with following the evolution of battery technology, I am even more enamored of wireless power. Combined with batteries, zones of wireless power transmission could keep our batteries charged automatically as we go through our daily routines. The trouble is that ever since Nicola Tesla first started working on the idea over a century ago, it has remained an elusive goal.

In a blog article that I previously published on this site, I spotlighted an article that discussed a modern theoretical power transmission system. It appears that now they have a working model (albeit a simple one) resulting from some intensive closely related research.

This article from MIT Technology Review updates us on progress from that theoretical power transmission system and describes the simple working model. We are still in the realm of research here, so don’t start designing your next house without electrical outlets. Not yet anyway. There are many issues to overcome and they’re not just of the technological stripe. Based on all the fuss, this will be an uphill climb that may not result in marketable products for many years to come. To better understand some the forces at play, just read this article on MSNBC’s Cosmic Log.

It leads one to wonder, will we ever achieve “electro-nirvana"?

Composite applications

Last week, I was at Microsoft Tech Ed and was able to see the current state of Microsoft technologies. One of the things that I found most interesting was not specifically a product, but more the state of composite application development using Microsoft Office and SharePoint.

It really made me wonder about the percentage of application development efforts that could (should?) be accomplished using the ability to mash-up an application using inherent capabilities embedded within the Office suite. In the past, I've written about the changes in IT that will take place when we move from a custom creation to a delayed assembly foundation for generating value. This looks to me like a significant step along that path.

Composite application creation has been talked about for a long time, but with the advent of MOSS, it has definitely reached a whole new level. How many organizations are going to plan for this or stumble into it the way most organizations stumbled into supporting hundreds (or even thousands) of solutions developed in Access?

The nice thing is that composite applications should have the agility of end-user assembled solutions, but with a much greater capability to the IT organization to back it up and maintain it.

With PerformancePoint, the ability to display the status of the environment and the business value developed should be relatively easy to demonstrate as well (when the product is released later this year).

The productivity and capability for applications where this technique is applicable, will be hard to argue against.

Charles Stross Speech on Shaping the Future

This is a good speech for those thinking about technology and its implications on our thought as well as our actions.

He discusses the implications of our perception of speed, information, storage, information flow, AI and the unintended consequences of this change.

His speech resonates directly with many of the items brought out in our IT3+ presentation, so I thought it might be of general interest. It's more from a science fiction writers perspective, but resonates well all the same.

He also talks about Vernor Vinge's concept of the AI singularity. Since Vernor has some of the more interesting SF alien concepts I've come across I had to reference it.

Whither The Next User Interface?

Major breakthroughs in user interfaces have been few and far between. Historically the command line interface was the first to give us a practical man-machine dialogue. The text based interface followed and improved on the command line by supporting the concept of forms (fields in context). The next major step was the Graphical User Interface, which is also the current preferred one for most of us. Computers aren’t people so we shouldn’t expect to interact with them using the same “inefficient” methods that we use to communicate with each other; or should we?

The truth is that human communications techniques are often actually very efficient, especially when you include facial expressions, body language and voice inflection. We know intuitively that these things, properly integrated with both new and existing user interface components, have the potential to give us the best of both worlds. We often discuss these things but the fact is that we have seen little commercial progress in getting there.

Enter the multiple finger touch screen, called “Surface” recently announced by Microsoft. Though it is an evolutionary idea, it may be a big enough step to mark a new beginning for user interface design and implementation. I think it may be nearly as important a stepping stone as the mouse once was. Granted there are more sophisticated interfaces currently in R&D, but "Surface" will be a product this year. Though it may seem inspired by the holographic interface from the movie “Minority Report” there isn’t much real similarity; such science fiction movie interfaces are too grand a goal to achieve in a single step. As tiny steps go, the touch pad and touch screen may have been the beginning of this one. Ideas like placing two fingers on a touchpad and in an up, down, left, right or diagonal motion as a means of scrolling have been in place for a few years. Even so, they are a far cry from what “Surface” promises, but a start none-the-less.

Credit where credit is due, Microsoft deserves kudos on this, particularly if it hits the market on schedule. A touch screen that reacts to and follows the location of multiple simultaneous touches, is a significant advancement that will, I expect, make a very big difference. Once it matures a little and reaches the right price point we should expect it to be rapidly adopted by both businesses and consumers.

Digital Media's Push Into The Living Room

Apple TV is a set top box that connects to your TV and has wireless access to your Apple iTunes content. This isn’t a bad idea until you realize that only iTunes content is available. Based on this recent article, it appears that Apple TV, by adding YouTube to its list of accessible content, may have a future after all. The good thing is that the YouTube upgrade will come in the form of a free software update.

In the meantime, remember the Apple iTunes/EMI content deal? Well it looks like EMI is inking a deal with YouTube that will bring EMI content to YouTube as well. When you add the other content providers that YouTube is bringing onboard, you begin to see the benefit of things like Apple TV.

Other initiatives to make your living room part of your home computer network have been around for a while. A popular example is Windows Media Center Edition, when used in conjunction with Microsoft XBOX 360 or Windows Media Center Extender, it allows you to wirelessly push media content to your living room as well.

Although I wouldn't say that we are in a rapid adoption period, I think it is coming. It just will not arrive until a few more consumer products and services in and around the consumer digital media space appear.